MultiNET Home Loans | May 2025

Recent media narratives have suggested a significant “reverse semigration” trend, implying that South Africans are moving back from coastal provinces, particularly the Western Cape, to Gauteng. However, a closer examination of the data reveals a different story.

Western Cape: The Preferred Destination

Contrary to claims of a mass return to Gauteng, the Western Cape continues to attract a substantial number of migrants:

• 32.4% of all inter-provincial moves in 2024 were directed to the Western Cape, making it the top destination for internal migration. The province retained its talent effectively, with only 15.1% of its residents moving to other provinces.
• Since 2011, the Western Cape has experienced significant net inward migration from other provinces in South Africa. Between mid-2011 and mid-2021, the province’s population increased by approximately 646,529 people due to net migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants). This trend continued in subsequent years. According to a 2023 report by Statistics South Africa, the Western Cape had a net gain of 183,388 people through inter-provincial migration, with 295,908 individuals moving into the province and 112,520 leaving.
• The primary sources of these migrants were the Eastern Cape and Gauteng.Between 2016 and 2021, 63.14% of new arrivals to the Western Cape came from the Eastern Cape, while 16.82% originated from Gauteng.
• Several factors have contributed to this migration pattern.The Western Cape has consistently had a lower unemployment rate compared to the national average, along with higher labour force participation and better educational outcomes. These economic and social advantages have made the province an attractive destination for individuals seeking improved opportunities.
• In summary, from 2011 to 2021, the Western Cape experienced a net population increase of approximately 646,529 people due to internal migration, with continued growth in subsequent years driven by its favourable economic and social conditions.

Gauteng: High Internal Movement but Net Outflow

While Gauteng remains a hub for internal migration, it faces a net loss in residents:

• Despite accounting for a high volume of internal migration, Gauteng experienced the largest net loss of residents at -20.1% in 2024.
• Many individuals initially move to Gauteng for career opportunities but eventually relocate to other provinces seeking a better quality of life and services.

Misinterpretation of Data

Some reports have highlighted that 25% of the Western Cape’s out-migration is to Gauteng, suggesting a reversal in migration trends. However, this statistic lacks context:

• The 25% figure pertains only to the Western Cape’s out-migration, not the overall migration patterns.
• The Western Cape’s inflow of migrants significantly outweighs its outflow, maintaining its status as a net gain province.

Factors Influencing Migration

Several factors contribute to the continued preference for the Western Cape:

• Quality of Life: The Western Cape is renowned for its scenic beauty, safety, and efficient service delivery.
• Economic Opportunities: The province has seen significant investments in property development, with building plans amounting to around R30 billion between January and November 2023.
• Remote Work: The rise of remote work has enabled professionals to reside in areas offering a better lifestyle without compromising their careers.

In conclusion, while there is a minor movement from the Western Cape back to Gauteng, the overarching trend indicates a continued migration towards the Western Cape.

It’s essential to interpret migration data within the broader context to avoid misconceptions. At Multinet Home Loans, we are committed to providing accurate insights to help our clients make informed decisions in the property market.

For more information visit www.multinet.co.za